Remainder of The Year

Well Done on the Statistics Topic
Statistics is really an avenue of learning in Maths that can take you right through to NCEA Level Three (and it's all focussed upon that PPDAC cycle).

Our next topic is going to be looked at through the topic of the Ocean (our ocean is the pacific ocean).  There are several ways that we can look at probability through the Ocean (the chance of catching a fish, the probability of big waves, the chance of finding pirate treasure).   

Probability is a nice small unit.  It is one of my favourite areas to learn.  You will be a wiser more 'on-to-it' person if you understand probability.

We begin with talking about the future and how things in the future we don't know. 
We then move into the simple chances of dice, coins, spinners.
Then we move into the real world of probability looking at really complex things and seeing what chances are that events will happen. 

Probability Vocabulary List.

Conditional Probability - The probability of an event assuming that another has occurred.

Expected Number - The expected number is the probability times the number of trials.  E.g. how many heads would you expect from flipping a coin thirty times.  Expected number = 0.5 x 30 = 15 heads.

Events – The observed result over time.  Assigned a number (between 0 and 1) or word.  E.g. 0 is “impossible”, 1 is “certain”, 0.5 is “equally likely/unlikely” etc.

Experimental Probability - The calculation of probability through observation over time.  The formula is P(event) = ^{#event happen}/_#trials.

Notation – The correct mathematical way of setting out probability.  E.g. the chance that the coin will be a head is presented P(head) = 0.5.  We use fractions and decimals for probability not ratios.

Odds - A gambling term for a comparison of probabilities.

Probability – The mathematical way of describing the likelihood of events in the future.

Probability Tool – These include coins, dice, random spinners, names out of a hat and random number generators (on your calculators).

Simulation – A simulation is where mathematicians take real life future events and assign probabilities to them (and a tool to calculate).  Then taking these future events combine them over many experiments to give an overall probability.  Use of tables and spreadsheets help.  

Theoretical Probability – Finding the chance through logic/knowledge not experiment. 

Tree Diagrams – A theoretical approach to present probabilities in a branch structures.  

Venn diagram - A box type diagram used to show sets.

Probability Post One

Intro To Probability

Probability is the study of the future – it works out the chance of things happening.

Probability only works for the future as things are not already determined.  Think about the next rugby world cup. 

The future is uncertain so we have to use our knowledge (theoretical – probability) to calculate the chances. 

We use numbers to show the chance of something happening in the future…


Probability is given in fractions or decimals (no % in test situations).

e.g. The probability that the AB’s will beat South Africa in the next game is…0.7 (or 7/10). 

Statistics Checklist

End of Topic
With our test coming up period one here is some final revision material.  Copy handed out in class. 

Remember for the test you'll need to have great graphing skills - straight edges with rulers, protractor (for pie graph) and a rubber to do any corrections.

Remember that you can use a calculator (it will be way easier to find the mean or the size of the angle on the pie graphs). 

Practice Statistics Graphs

Some Practice Materials...

Here are two worksheets that are close to the test (remaining 50% of the unit). 

Sorry I've got a sick daughter and can't make it in for your presentations today - will do these next lesson. 

 

 

Second Half Statistics Topic

The remainder of the term...
We have the election results as a focal point for the next two weeks.  An election is really a census of the entire population of the voting public (over 18 years old). 
 
The final 50% of your grade will be from a test/assessment done over one hour.  This part of the topic will be done solo (as opposed to your presentation done in pairs). 
 
The specific things that you have to be able to do are...
 

1. Put raw data (in a random order) into a stem and leaf graph.  This may be sorted or unsorted.  This may be a back to back stem and leaf graph.
2. Calculate from stem n leaf graph the measures of the centre (mean/median/mode) and the spread (range and interquartile range).
3. Use the PPDAC cycle of inquiry (know what happens when and why it happens).
4. Draw box n whisker graphs carefully in grid paper (using a ruler and correct scale/sizes). 
5. Read graphs to get information (histogram/pictograph/bar/pie/box n whisker).   

 
You are allow a calculator but not the computers for this part of the topic. 

PPDAC For The Movies

PPDAC Inquiry Summary
Now that you've had enough time to look at the database of movies from 2012 and 2013 it is important for you to consider the bigger picture idea of inquiry.

So owners of movie theatres are very interested in what movies are coming up.  The term "blockbuster" is great it means lots of people going to the movies and more $$ for the owners.  

So the initial investigation would be on assessing which year was better or if things are getting better or worse?


Remember that you presentation will need to have some slides that cover all of the PPDAC sections.

·         Problem – I will give this to you "I wonder if 2013 was a better year financial at the box office for movies".  You can make a prediction which year you think might be better just looking at the databases.   

·         Plan – I got it from a website called box office mojo.   There was way more than 100 movies but I picked the top 100 - but I choose to limit to the top 100. 

 

·        Data – Explain how you picked your sample.  What is good about the size of the sample you choose.  Also note that the data is in US dollars and rounded to the nearest million dollars. 

·        Analysis – You have to find statistics like the middle (mean/median/mode)    the spread (range and interquartile range).   You have to have some graph(s) Box n Whisker      and/or      Back to Back Stem n Leaf 

Box n Whisker Generator

Creating Accurate Box n Whisker Graph
I found a site that will generate the graph for you. 

It is a really important graph to know what is happening (but given this is a presentation on slides this is the best option). 

Here is the link (Americans call box n whisker graphs - boxplot graphs). 

The website will generate one graph at a time that will look like this...

It is important that when you do your second graph that you go from zero upto the maximum value of either year (so that they are the same scale). 

You may also need to use the snipping tool

here is a YouTube clip of how to use snipping tool (I use this all the time)...