Remainder of The Year

Well Done on the Statistics Topic
Statistics is really an avenue of learning in Maths that can take you right through to NCEA Level Three (and it's all focussed upon that PPDAC cycle).

Our next topic is going to be looked at through the topic of the Ocean (our ocean is the pacific ocean).  There are several ways that we can look at probability through the Ocean (the chance of catching a fish, the probability of big waves, the chance of finding pirate treasure).   

Probability is a nice small unit.  It is one of my favourite areas to learn.  You will be a wiser more 'on-to-it' person if you understand probability.

We begin with talking about the future and how things in the future we don't know. 
We then move into the simple chances of dice, coins, spinners.
Then we move into the real world of probability looking at really complex things and seeing what chances are that events will happen. 

Probability Vocabulary List.

Conditional Probability - The probability of an event assuming that another has occurred.

Expected Number - The expected number is the probability times the number of trials.  E.g. how many heads would you expect from flipping a coin thirty times.  Expected number = 0.5 x 30 = 15 heads.

Events – The observed result over time.  Assigned a number (between 0 and 1) or word.  E.g. 0 is “impossible”, 1 is “certain”, 0.5 is “equally likely/unlikely” etc.

Experimental Probability - The calculation of probability through observation over time.  The formula is P(event) = ^{#event happen}/_#trials.

Notation – The correct mathematical way of setting out probability.  E.g. the chance that the coin will be a head is presented P(head) = 0.5.  We use fractions and decimals for probability not ratios.

Odds - A gambling term for a comparison of probabilities.

Probability – The mathematical way of describing the likelihood of events in the future.

Probability Tool – These include coins, dice, random spinners, names out of a hat and random number generators (on your calculators).

Simulation – A simulation is where mathematicians take real life future events and assign probabilities to them (and a tool to calculate).  Then taking these future events combine them over many experiments to give an overall probability.  Use of tables and spreadsheets help.  

Theoretical Probability – Finding the chance through logic/knowledge not experiment. 

Tree Diagrams – A theoretical approach to present probabilities in a branch structures.  

Venn diagram - A box type diagram used to show sets.